REPORT FROM THE COUNCIL FOR EXCELLENCE IN MANAGEMENT AND LEADERSHIP
Futures Studies Part One: Implications of futures studies for business, organisation, management and leadership - William Tate
For this quick project around two-dozen futures studies have been chosen for analysis from a larger number seen and many more known about. Countless more exist in this wide field of research. Not all those selected for analysis have been fully examined by the time of producing this draft.
The majority of the studies are from the UK - from government departments, institutions, think-tanks and corporations, along with a small number of overseas items. They have been selectively examined from the perspective of their relevance to the leadership and management of UK business. This means that some prominent issues in studies don't receive a mention here (e.g. erosion of family life, decline in organised religion). The studies take several forms, including pamphlets, website downloads, books and futures magazines. (A full list is contained in the Appendices.)
Many of the studies contain scenarios - "plausible and challenging stories of the future … not forecasts or predictions". Futurologists argue over the different ways of generating scenarios; some produce more radical outcomes than others. Some explain their methodology. But I have not tried to evaluate their approaches. I have relied upon the reputation of the source and of those involved.
The studies span a wide range of themes of relevance to business, organisation, management and leadership. Most of them range across a broad compass, but a few have a specialised focus; e.g. business education. This report offers a few comments on specialist areas, but it has not been possible to do full justice to the needs of business schools, professions, SMEs, etc. Futures studies relating to these subjects would be best considered separately within the respective CEML project.
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